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Exit polls cannot determine the future Indians have chosen


Watching exit polls used to be fun but after seeing politics closely in past few years I have concluded that Exit polls are nothing but predictable scenarios that have to be taken with a pinch of salt. Exit polls will soon be forgotten because the actual results overpower the predictions and nobody has to explain why and why not. Worst case you have the standard excuse of sample size, margin of error etc. The media companies are not impartial anymore is a hard fact and people very well know their affiliations and also their tie-ups with so called neutral psephology companies. None the less an effort is made to collect and compile samples and then derive numbers. Curiosity attracts a lot of eyeballs and hence TRP. So the exit polls will exist as long as the elections do, but thanks to EC directive of not to air exit polls till the last vote is casted has kept them in abeyance from influencing the elections. That said many of my friends have asked me 'what do you think?' and 'who will form the government?'. My answer has been let us wait for another 4 days. At this point, not the guess work but more important is understanding the possibilities. As I see there are four possible ways to form the next government of India
  1. NDA : BJP + pre-poll allies
  2. NDA+ : BJP + pre-poll allies + post poll allies
  3. UPA+ : Congress + pre-poll allies + Third front
  4. Third front+ : Third front supported by Congress

Let us understand each of these and their possibilities. Loksabha has 543 elected representatives and combination of any parties or independents together can claim a stake to form the government provided the total strength of that group is 272+

1) NDA

Contrary to the BJP projecting itself to be a lone winner, it actually has alliance with close to 40 parties across India with a non-competitive pre-poll arrangement, the major ones include Shiv sena, SAD in Pujab, AIADMK in Tamilnadu and many other smaller parties that are relevant locally. As of today BJP has cheif ministers in 12 states and NDA (including BJP) has chief ministers in 17 states out of 29. Out of the 12 BJP led states, BJP by itself has full majority in 8 states and is dependent on its partners in the remaining. Coming to current Loksabha (2014), NDA has a strength of 336/543 of which BJP has 282 seats, 9 seats more than what's needed to form the government. This made NDA partners themselves irrelevant in 2014 and need for others  was out of question. Interestingly out of the 195 seats gained by NDA (compared to 2009), BJP alone had gained 166 seats. The windfall gain was in Uttar Pradesh (71/80 seats [+61]), Rajasthan (25/25 seats [+21]), Madhya Pradesh (27/29 seats[+10]), Gujarat (26/26 seats [+11]), Delhi (7/7 seats [+7]), Chattisgarh (10/11 seats [0]). Compared to other contributors these states are of importance because they not only add up to 166 seats but also have drifted away from BJP if assembly elections in the respective states are any indicators and also SP+BSP combination has proven lethal in UP by-elections. If BJP and NDA partners hang on to their current seat holdings then NDA government will continue to run India for another 5 years. But if the drifting states continue to drift away from BJP and Tamil Nadu (a state that switches parties every 5 years) does not favour AIADMK and other old partners like TDP move away from NDA and the quantum at which this will happen leads us to the other 3 options.

2) NDA+

If the Hindi heartland rejects BJP and NDA partners not doing enough to reach the 272 mark then NDA will be left scrambling for outside support or post poll alliances. From the efforts BJP is putting to conquer states where it did not have much presence earlier it appears BJP has also sensed this rejection in the Hindi heartland. With BJP being tasted absolute power for the first time and the Narendra Modi, Amit Shah combo reluctant to let go of power might make this scenario of democracy as dirty as it could get. BJP has left no stone unturned to reach where it has reached today and achieved what it has achieved politically. It has used all the tools (saam, daam, dhand, bedha) at its disposal. Glimpses of what happened in west Bengal during this election is just an example. Even though the motto was 'Congress mukth Bharat' it has not shied-away from acquiring many congress-wo/men in to its folds. It has even acquired charge sheeted felons, strong communal polarisers and awarded them with tickets and high positions. It has even gone to the extent of losing its own identity ('BJP mukth') with almost God like worship and status given to Narendra Modi and the clutches of Amit Shah suffocating the party veterans who built it the hard way. Today Narendra Modi in BJP reminds of Indira Gandhi in congress about 50 years ago. This scenario of NDA falling few seats short of 272 and what will follow thereafter is something India might not like to witness or record as part of its history.

3) UPA+

Since 2014 Congress was receding at a pace more than it could handle, it lost general elections badly and then state after state in the elections that followed. It made a formidable comeback from Gujarat elections and started reorganising itself and its thought process sensibly. The decision, like in Karnataka, to put partners with lesser stake holding above itself surprised many in the political circle. While it was about to look like Congress is willing to do anything and everything to keep BJP in the check, the elections of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh happened. Where congress almost single handedly threw BJP out of power in these states. For good or for worse Congress also lost its site of 2019. Working with its natural partners to keep BJP out of center was not Congress' priority anymore but it rather started focusing on recovering its lost ground. The new found young guns of the congress failed to judge the available time appropriately. With congress unwilling to strike a chord with parties like SP, BSP, TDP, TMC, TRS and unable to get them onboard UPA (pre-poll) the possibility of UPA forming the government by itself is ruled out. By contesting against these parties in many seats Congress might have even harmed the chances of UPA+ being able to form the government. None the less the ability of Indian voters to opt and choose what's right for them surprises me more often. If and only if the Hindi heartland has leaned more towards Congress and the voter has disregarded Congress in seats its not going to win and has kept his/her focus on the non-BJP alternatives only then appears a chance of UPA+ forming the government. Even though the regional parties are in favour of such arrangement post the results, it is an uphill task for Congress to become an anchor in such an arrangement. The Congress have to grow their current tally of 44 to at least 120+ to be in a commanding position of UPA+ government. Congress failing to do so leads us to the 4th possibility.

4) Third Front+

There are certain states of India where national parties have not made deep in roads and historically the voters seem to be favouring the regional parties to meet their expectations and aspirations. Specially if the local parties have been able to connect with the voters and their issues well. States like Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Telengana, Kerala, West Bengal, Orissa, Jammu & Kashmir have historically favoured regional parties. Regional parties also seem to have strong hold in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Delhi and Punjab. Even though parties like JDS from Karnataka and RJD from Bihar have pre-poll alliances with Congress, given a chance they would be part of the third front led government rather than stick to UPA. There are also many states with fewer number of MPs who seem to historically favour the regional leadership. While all these seats put together sums up to be around 270-280 which is just about the number one needs to form the government but odds of these parties winning all the seats is very low. Hence the chances of Third front being able to form the government by itself is very little to none. Thus in the eventuality of voters overwhelmingly choosing these parties as their choice, the only possibility of such parties coming together and forming the government is with the support of Congress or BJP. In the given scenario it seem to be more congress than BJP that would support such a possibility.  

With these four scenarios on the board, the result day of May 23rd that will decide the future of India for the next 5 years and its impact on many years to follow will be interesting. No exit polls or political pundits can rule out these possibilities till the results are made public. With 5 VVPATs to be matched with EVM counting in every assembly would mean the clear trends might come in early but the official declaration of the results will be a little late than usual. It will also be a curious case to see how VVPATs match up with EVMs as it is the first time VVPATs have been used in all booths in a general election.

About the Author

Basavaraj Mudigoudar is an entrepreneur and engineer by profession. Volunteers as head of Policy and Research at Aam Aadmi Party, Karnataka
Twitter: @Basavarajsm_
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